Use of Z-fuzzy numbers in the management of megaprojects

Höfundar

Dorota Kuchta.

Ágrip

Greinin er á ensku.

Abstract

The paper discusses the problem of the lack of credibility of estimates used for decision making in megaproject management. We present the high importance of this issue and discuss factors that negatively influence megaproject estimates. We propose a method to be used for the estimation of basic parameters of megaprojects based on Z-fuzzy numbers. Fuzzy numbers allow modelling the lack of full knowledge and the changeability, which are omnipresent in megaprojects. Z-fuzzy numbers allow for the adjustment of estimates based on the opinion about their authors' credibility among project stakeholders. As a result, the estimates will be much more realistic. Fuzzy numbers and Z-fuzzy numbers are described, and the estimation method is presented. Simple examples accompany the description, and the method proposed is illustrated using a real-world example. Limitations of the method are listed in the conclusions.